Outlook seems shiny for post-budget market bounceback

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Particular OnTheMarket survey exhibits over half of UK movers going forward with plans after months of pre-Funds turbulence

Following the Autumn Funds, we determined to do a particular version of our Property Sentiment Index to gauge the impression of the long-awaited announcement on the UK’s homemovers and supply an early indicator of the market outlook forward.

Regardless of appreciable hypothesis and uncertainty within the months prior, the survey exhibits patrons, sellers and renters throughout the nation are largely undeterred by the insurance policies introduced with over half already making the choice to press forward, and even speed up, plans within the 10 days following the Chancellor’s speech.

  • Half (50%) say the outcomes of the Funds haven’t any impression on their transferring or funding plans, regardless of earlier considerations, whereas 6% report they’re truly accelerating plans following the bulletins
  • Of these the remaining 44% of respondents that had been planning a transfer, solely 15% reported both delaying or cancelling following the Funds bulletins. A complete of 20% are but to resolve
  • Expectations of the impression to the market are blended: 34% count on the general Funds outcomes to have a adverse impression, whereas 16% see them as prone to have constructive outcomes. Virtually a 3rd (30%) consider the announcement could have no impact on the property market
  • Coverage-specific measures such because the Council Tax surcharge (Mansion Tax) are largely seen as impartial, although a minority anticipate delays or cancellations (solely 2% are cancelling their plans)
  • Londoners’ view of the Council Tax surcharge and Funds general are in keeping with the remainder of the nation regardless of expectations of it being disproportionally affected
  • Patrons are usually extra pessimistic than renters, solely 10% of patrons count on the Funds to have a constructive impression in comparison with 21% of renters, whereas older age teams usually tend to view the Funds negatively

Of these surveyed, 40% had plans to purchase a brand new dwelling and 23% had been intending a rental transfer previous to the Funds. Following the announcement on the 26 November 2025, half (50%) of those say their plans stay unchanged, whereas 6% have determined to speed up their transferring plans suggesting that the outcomes of Funds haven’t considerably disrupted confidence and, as a substitute, offered welcomed readability after a few of the most turbulent hypothesis lately. Solely 12% have determined to delay their plans and three% have cancelled them. Nevertheless, 20% of respondents with prior transferring plans are nonetheless not sure or undecided (the remaining 9% responded as ‘different’).

When requested in regards to the general impact of the Autumn Funds on the property market, 30% consider it’s going to have neither a constructive nor adverse impression. Nevertheless, 34% view it as considerably or very adverse, in comparison with 16% who see it as considerably or very constructive. This means a cautious outlook, although not as extreme as many had feared.

Regardless of hypothesis round new tax insurance policies, it seems the Council Tax surcharge (often known as the Mansion Tax by which properties over £2m pays an annual tax of £2,500 and people over £5m topic to £7,500 a yr from 2028) could have no impression on purchaser and vendor plans (66%), with 2% stating it as the particular purpose for cancelling their plans.

Though forecasts recommended Londoners could be hardest hit by the Council Tax surcharge, their views on this coverage and the Funds general are broadly in keeping with the remainder of the nation, with responses carefully reflecting nationwide averages.

Jason Tebb, President at OnTheMarket, feedback:

“Forward of the Autumn Funds, there was widespread concern about potential property tax modifications, however our newest property sentiment report exhibits the impression on shopper plans has been comparatively modest. Whereas some uncertainty stays, many patrons, sellers, and renters are persevering with with their plans, which is a constructive signal for market stability as we head into the brand new yr.”

Kevin Shaw, Nationwide Gross sales Managing Director, LRG:

“After all of the hypothesis, this Funds supplied little for the housing market. No stamp obligation reform, no significant help for first-time patrons and a brand new tax on higher-value properties that raises as many questions because it solutions.

“Stamp obligation stays an outdated tax that restricts mobility and places the brakes on financial exercise. The broader property market represents a good portion of the economic system – when transactions movement, solicitors, surveyors, mortgage brokers and removing firms all profit. We stay robust believers that there’s a necessity for basic reform to permit the market to perform extra successfully.

“We’ve already seen proof of what occurs when taxes on property enhance. In Cornwall, Devon, Wales and different places the place council tax on second houses has doubled, provide has risen as house owners look to promote, demand has fallen, and costs are beneath strain. Related dynamics might play out on the increased finish of the market when the brand new surcharge takes impact in 2028.

“On a extra constructive observe, the Financial institution of England has reduce rates of interest 5 occasions for the reason that begin of this Parliament. In keeping with the Funds, this interprets to financial savings of round £1,200 a yr on a typical new mortgage. With a Reuters ballot displaying practically 80% of economists count on an additional reduce in December, bettering affordability stays the important thing to unlocking exercise for patrons and sellers.”

Methodology:

  • Between Wednesday 26 November and Wednesday 3 December, over 1,700 energetic property seekers who’ve lately signed up for property alerts or despatched a property enquiry at OnTheMarket participated in our survey. This group represents engaged people at present navigating the UK property market
  • The place totals don’t add as much as 100%, this is because of rounding
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