By Ian Barnett, group land and improvement director, LRG
I spend a lot of my time in conversations between landowners about improvement, and one theme runs by virtually each dialogue: the idea amongst landowners that when you wait lengthy sufficient, the land will at all times be value extra. In 2026, I believe that assumption is extra harmful than ever.
Improvement prices have risen relentlessly over the previous decade. Group Infrastructure Levy, biodiversity web acquire, constructing security regulation and better reasonably priced housing necessities all sit on high larger constructions prices and improvement finance. The result’s that land values on the entire have declined.
Coverage tailwinds are actual, however they won’t final eternally
Set in opposition to these headwinds, the planning coverage atmosphere is changing into extra beneficial for these keen to maneuver. The federal government’s 1.5 million houses pledge is extraordinarily difficult given weak output to this point, however it’s driving a extra permissive planning stance. With the brand new NPPF in place, the Planning and Infrastructure Invoice near enactment and additional revisions to the NPPF on the horizon, I anticipate an extra loosening of some constraints.
Alongside this we’ll quickly see a set of non-statutory nationwide improvement administration insurance policies, new design codes, a renewed give attention to brownfield (once more!), assist for SMEs and the top of the responsibility to co-operate. There are additionally wise selections on Landfill Tax, the place ministers have stepped again from adjustments that might have pushed prices larger and undermined housing supply.
The English Devolution and Group Empowerment Invoice will usher in spatial improvement methods and new strategic authorities. That long-awaited return to regional planning ought to permit extra coherent planning throughout boundaries as long as it has time to mattress in.
Gray belt, brownfield and new cities will form the map
For 2026, I see the best alternative in three areas:
First, gray belt and a few Inexperienced Belt places will come into sharper focus because the trade construct an understanding of how the coverage is interpreted. Builders are actively looking for lifelike alternatives in these areas. Landowners who perceive present values and coverage, quite than yesterday’s headline figures, will likely be finest positioned to agree offers.
Second, brownfield is once more being prioritised. In London, the Houses for London coverage observe permits a extra versatile strategy that ought to assist extra lifelike land pricing on complicated city websites.
Third, the brand new cities programme. Figuring out as much as 12 places, with potential for round 300,000 houses, is precisely the form of long-term considering the system has lacked though there’s a danger that speculative schemes and triggered choices may complicate supply the second purple strains seem on the map. Landowners in and round candidate places ought to search clear, early recommendation, but in addition perceive the probably timeframes concerned.
What I need to see from authorities in early 2026
Progress has been made on planning reform, however coverage nonetheless treats land, planning, improvement and property gross sales as separate worlds. If ministers need the 1.5 million houses goal to stay credible, they need to align each ends of the chain: a planning system that permits good schemes to return ahead and a gross sales atmosphere that provides consumers confidence.#
For landowners, my recommendation is that 2026 favours those that have interaction with this new actuality, safe planning the place acceptable and agree offers that work in in the present day’s market.
