Robert Jenrick’s switch to Reform UK earlier this year sent shockwaves through British politics. A recording from August 2024 reveals that, while vying for Conservative leadership against Kemi Badenoch, he viewed Nigel Farage’s party as a potential rival for the centre-right leadership.
Jenrick’s Assessment of Reform UK’s Future
In remarks to Newbury Conservative activists, Jenrick outlined how Reform UK could block the Conservatives’ path back to power. He cautioned that the party might implode due to internal strife.
The Newark MP stated: “[Reform] might just disappear, they might peter out, they might all start hating each other and Nigel Farage might, you know, p*** everybody off in the party.”
However, Jenrick refrained from dismissing the threat outright. “I did not want to bet the house on that because the opposite could also be true,” he added. “They could build on this and they could fight us to be the standard-bearer of the centre-right in British politics. So, I think we’ve got to take it very seriously, and we’ve got to try to bring those people back to us.”
Impact of Reform’s 2024 Election Success
Jenrick highlighted Reform UK’s strong showing in the 2024 general election, where it secured 4.1 million votes and five MPs, as a key factor in the Conservative defeat. He warned that, unlike after Labour’s 1997 landslide—when no other party vied for the right-wing vote—Reform now poses a persistent challenge to Tory recovery.
Reform UK drew level with the Conservatives in polls by December 2024, peaked at 31% in July 2025, and has held the top spot since.
Jenrick’s Loyalty and Party Critique
Addressing the activists, Jenrick affirmed his deep ties to the Conservative Party, calling it his “blood” and the nation’s “best hope.” He dismissed efforts to recruit Farage or outflank Reform on its own turf as futile.
Jenrick delivered a sharp assessment of the Conservatives’ governance failures, particularly on immigration: “We need to be honest that we lost this election because we failed to deliver for the British public on some of the central questions facing our country. First and foremost, but not exclusively, was immigration.”
He aimed to win back Reform voters without a merger: “I think Reform has flourished because we have failed.”
Leadership Defeat and Defection
Jenrick lost the leadership race to Badenoch by 12,418 votes and briefly served as Shadow Justice Secretary. Badenoch dismissed him in January, citing evidence of his defection plans. Hours later, he joined Farage at a Reform UK press conference as their newest MP.
A Conservative Party source criticized Jenrick as self-serving: “Jenrick is a chancer who has only ever been out for himself. He doesn’t care about the country—just the next rung on the career ladder. It’s only a matter of time before he stabs Farage in the back—like he has everyone else.” The source also questioned his qualifications for a potential Chancellor role under Farage, noting a lack of business experience.
Jenrick explained his departure by stating that the Conservatives refused to own their errors or adapt, opting instead to blame voters who shifted to Reform UK.
