Towns along the Murray River delivered a decisive victory for One Nation in the recent Farrer by-election. All 15 polling booths from Albury to the South Australian border turned strongly in favor of Pauline Hanson’s party. This surge signals challenges for the Coalition, particularly in neighboring Victorian electorates where shared regional frustrations fuel similar discontent.
Nationals-Held Seats in the Crosshairs
The Murray River marks Farrer’s southern edge and forms the northern boundary for Victoria’s Nicholls, centered on Shepparton, and Mallee, with Mildura as its key city. Both remain under Nationals control. These areas feature large agricultural communities opposed to federal irrigation water buyback schemes.
To the east, Indi borders Farrer and includes Wodonga, a growing regional hub near Albury with younger, more educated voters. Independent MP Helen Haines holds Indi federally and warns of broader regional backlash against the Coalition. “I think what this says is watch out,” Haines stated following the by-election.
In New South Wales, threats extend to the expansive Parkes in the far west and Riverina, anchored by conservative Wagga Wagga. Anti-establishment sentiment has precedent here, with past state gains by groups like the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
Queensland’s vast Maranoa, along with Flynn and Capricornia, face similar vulnerabilities. Rising living costs, shrinking farm profits, perceptions of urban policy bias, mechanization, and demographic shifts erode support in these areas.
“We’re coming after those other seats,” Hanson declared after the Farrer result. Voters here often share lower median incomes, fewer university degrees, and high rates of Australian-born residents.
Polling Momentum Builds
One Nation’s support surged from 6% in last year’s Farrer election to 39% in the by-election. Strong prior results appeared elsewhere: 20% first preferences in Yarroweyah (Nicholls) and 37% in Cumborah (Parkes).
Queensland’s Liberal-held Wright showed booths over 20%. Victoria’s Gippsland, Nationals territory, hit 31% in Yallourn North amid coal phase-out concerns. New South Wales’ Labor-held Hunter recorded multiple booths above 20%, mirroring regional demographics.
While some MPs note by-elections amplify protest votes, Nationals insiders express alarm. A former Nationals MP observed, “The Nats are just about buggered. They [current MPs] are all pretty scared.” Another added, “Between the independents and One Nation, there’s a real chance that they will be decimated, and particularly in NSW.”
Urban Ambitions Face Hurdles
One Nation eyes outer urban areas like western Sydney, per MP Barnaby Joyce. Seats such as Melbourne’s Bruce feature lower incomes and education levels but diverse migrant populations—over half overseas-born in Bruce, McMahon, Watson, and Rankin. Hanson’s past rhetoric on immigration poses barriers in these electorates.
