TIANJIN, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 01: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin(L) and Chinese language President Xi jinping forward of the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) Summit 2025 on the Meijiang Conference and Exhibition Centre on September 1, 2025 in Tianjin, China. (Photograph by Suo Takekuma – Pool/Getty Pictures)
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Typically one {photograph} tells the story higher than any communique or summit declaration.
A broadly shared clip of Chinese language President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin laughing collectively in Tianjin has already gone viral.
On the floor, it seems to be a simple alternate between three leaders. However analysts say it displays a fragile mixture of competing rivalries and shifting energy dynamics.
Gautam Bambawale, India’s former ambassador to China, informed CNBC’s Inside India: “The dragon and the elephant should not dancing as but. They’re simply one another from reverse sides of a room and attempting to evaluate what are the implications of the connection between the 2? It should take time to carry the connection again on monitor.”
The obstacles are clear. The border dispute between India and China stays unresolved because the 2020 clashes. Beijing’s shut partnership with Pakistan — extending past financial corridors into navy gear and intelligence cooperation — additional constrains how far ties can develop.
This week’s Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) summit gave the {photograph} its backdrop. The SCO is increasing in dimension and ambition, however as Jeremy Chan at Eurasia Group identified, extra prominence doesn’t essentially imply extra relevance.
“The SCO, whereas it is typically described as a safety group, actually does not deal with navy issues per se, and on the entire international conflicts which have taken place lately, whether or not that is Ukraine or in Gaza, the SCO has primarily been absent,” Chan informed CNBC.
The timing of the assembly can be notable. With U.S. President Donald Trump elevating tariffs and unsettling international markets, Beijing is utilizing the SCO to emphasise its outreach to the World South. Chan stated Trump is “respiration new life” into the summit, giving China an opportunity to border its diplomacy as extra reliable than Washington’s.
On Monday, Trump posted on Reality Social, saying that India had supplied to scale back it is tariffs to U.S. items to zero. Describing the connection with India as one-sided, Trump stated the U.S. is India’s largest consumer.
“The reason being that India has charged us, till now, such excessive Tariffs, essentially the most of any nation, that our companies are unable to promote into India. It has been a very one sided catastrophe! Additionally, India buys most of its oil and navy merchandise from Russia, little or no from the U.S. They’ve now supplied to chop their Tariffs to nothing, however it’s getting late. They need to have achieved so years in the past,” Trump posted.
In the meantime, the photo-op has additionally drawn scrutiny in U.S. media. The New York Occasions described the interplay as a “smiling manifestation of a troika that Moscow had lately stated it hoped to revive,” noting the optics of closeness between Modi and Putin, who even shared a experience to a gathering on the sidelines. The report argued that India’s historically cautious forms would possibly as soon as have averted such overt shows with China and Russia, however Trump’s sweeping tariffs depart New Delhi with “little incentive” to carry again.
Multipolarity, outlined in another way
For buyers, the stakes are important. The SCO brings collectively economies representing almost half the world’s inhabitants, central to vitality and commerce flows. With tariffs threatening provide chains and markets looking forward to indicators of fragmentation, summits like these are carefully watched for indicators of latest alignments, even when substantive outcomes are restricted.
For India, the optics carry weight. Modi’s talks with Xi have been interpreted as a reminder to Washington that India is keen to keep up dialogue with Beijing and Moscow whereas deepening ties with the U.S. and its allies. However New Delhi’s determination to skip the SCO navy parade underscored the boundaries of any thaw.
“India is utilizing this to opportunistically ship a sign not directly to Washington, that it has strategic choices, not solely in Beijing, but in addition in Moscow,” Chan stated. Modi’s fast exit from the summit, instantly after arriving from Tokyo, additionally underlined India’s continued engagement with U.S. companions in Asia.
On the coronary heart of the summit was a debate over “multipolarity,” Chan stated, including that the definition of multipolarity is completely different for India and China.
Beijing defines it as a system the place U.S. dominance is decreased, permitting China better scope to claim itself as Asia’s main energy. India, against this, sees multipolarity as affect unfold extra evenly throughout many international locations, with no single state in management, Chan informed CNBC’s Inside India.
In the meantime, for Russia, the SCO stays one of many few worldwide platforms the place Putin shouldn’t be on the defensive, underscoring Moscow’s enduring ties with influential Asian companions regardless of Western sanctions.
The {photograph} captures all of this in a single body. The grins counsel concord, however the actuality is much extra advanced.
