Left-wing parties plan to unite against Reform UK forming the next Welsh government, even if the party secures the most seats, according to former First Minister Mark Drakeford.
Recent polls show Reform UK challenging Plaid Cymru for the leading position ahead of the Senedd election on May 7. No party anticipates a majority, so forming a government will require coalitions to secure a first minister nomination.
Drakeford’s Stance on Coalition Dynamics
Drakeford predicts that most Welsh voters will back left-leaning parties, urging them to collaborate for a stable, progressive administration. In the post-election Senedd vote, a first minister candidate needs a majority of votes cast to succeed.
He stated, “I don’t believe for a moment that a Reform nominee would be endorsed by the Senedd because I think that next Senedd will have three-quarters or two-thirds of its members who do not share the views of that party.”
Even if Reform emerges as the largest party, Drakeford maintains their nominee would fail. Addressing potential accusations of left-wing parties ganging up, he noted, “The left-wing parties… would have more seats and more votes between them and they will be casting those votes to reflect the views of their electorate.”
Reform UK’s Response
Reform UK’s Welsh leader, Dan Thomas, criticized the remarks, saying they reveal how “establishment parties will do absolutely anything” to exclude ordinary people from power. He added, “The establishment parties will do absolutely anything they can to stop real people from having a seat at the table and having their voices heard. This May, it’s time to send them a message that hardworking Welsh men and women will no longer be ignored.”
Drakeford’s Legacy and Labour’s Challenges
Drakeford played a pivotal role in Welsh devolution over the past 27 years, advising former First Minister Rhodri Morgan, entering the National Assembly in 2011, and serving as first minister from 2018 to 2024, including during the Covid pandemic. He led Welsh Labour to victory in the 2021 Senedd election.
Explaining Welsh Labour’s current poor polling, Drakeford attributed it to the ‘time for a change’ sentiment that grows stronger after prolonged governance, compounded by years of austerity eroding public faith. On personal responsibility, he said, “You don’t do these jobs without being willing to shoulder [it]. I went into the last election on the basis of an opinion poll that said it was going to be Labour’s worst-ever result and in the end, only six weeks later, it was our best-ever result.”
