Firm: PepsiCo
Enterprise: PepsiCo is likely one of the world’s largest shopper packaged items firms, with a portfolio of a few of the most iconic manufacturers in meals and beverage. Its manufacturers embody: Lay’s, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, Pepsi-Cola, Mountain Dew, Quaker and SodaStream. Its segments embody Frito-Lay North America (FLNA); Quaker Meals North America (QFNA); PepsiCo Drinks North America (PBNA); Latin America (LatAm); Europe; Africa, Center East and South Asia (AMESA), and Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China Area (APAC). FLNA makes, markets, distributes and sells branded handy meals, which embody branded dips, Cheetos cheese-flavored snacks, Doritos tortilla chips, Fritos corn chips, Lay’s potato chips, and others. QFNA’s merchandise embody Cap’n Crunch cereal, Life cereal, Pearl Milling Firm syrups and mixes, Quaker Chewy granola bars, Quaker grits, Quaker oatmeal and others. PBNA makes, markets and sells beverage concentrates and fountain syrups underneath varied beverage manufacturers, together with Aquafina, Bubly, Food plan Pepsi, Gatorade and others.
Inventory Market Worth: $211.28 billion ($154.32 per share)
Activist: Elliott Funding Administration
Possession: ~1.9%
Common Value: n/a
Activist Commentary: Elliott is a multistrategy funding agency that manages about $76.1 billion in belongings (as of June 30, 2025) and is likely one of the oldest corporations of its kind underneath steady administration. Recognized for its intensive due diligence and assets, Elliott commonly follows firms for years earlier than investing. Elliott is probably the most energetic of activist traders, participating with firms throughout industries and a number of geographies.
What’s taking place
On Tuesday, Elliott despatched a presentation and letter to the board of PepsiCo detailing the corporate’s alternative to reaccelerate development and enhance efficiency via better focus, improved operations, strategic reinvestment and enhanced accountability.
Behind the scenes
PepsiCo is likely one of the world’s largest shopper packaged items firms, with a portfolio of a few of the most iconic manufacturers in meals and beverage. Globally, the corporate is the primary participant in snacking and the quantity two participant in drinks trailing solely Coca-Cola.
Pepsi is split between its North America enterprise (60% of income) and Worldwide (40%). Inside North America, its segments are PepsiCo Meals North America and PepsiCo Drinks North America, every of which account for about 30% of the corporate’s whole income. Frito-Lay North America, which makes up about 90% of PFNA, is the dominant chief in salty snacks and a constant development driver. PBNA has a portfolio of iconic manufacturers, like its flagship Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and Gatorade, and a attain that rivals Coca-Cola in a really engaging and high-margin finish market. Regardless of its scale, model power and observe file of development, Pepsi’s inventory has underperformed, shedding virtually $40 billion in market cap over the previous three years and trailing its benchmark, the S&P Client Staples Index, by 169 share factors over the previous 20 years.
Strategic missteps within the firm’s core North America companies are on the root of this underperformance. In 2010, each Coca-Cola and Pepsi acquired most of their bottlers. Nevertheless, whereas Coca-Cola moved to refranchise its bottling enterprise, Pepsi saved these vertically built-in. This choice has confirmed to be a expensive mistake for the PBNA section.
Previous to this strategic divergence, PBNA’s working margins have been 300 bps larger than Coca-Cola. Now, PBNA’s working margins are 1,000 bps decrease, reflecting the price pressures that include protecting these cost-intensive and decrease margin operations in home.
PBNA’s second misstep was its response to the modifications in shopper soda preferences. As soda consumption declined within the early 2000s, PBNA shifted its focus away from soda and in the direction of more healthy classes. Whereas this was justified on the time, soda preferences have since stabilized, but PBNA has not been reinvesting into soda. This lack of concentrate on its core merchandise has had severe repercussions, together with the delayed launch of Pepsi Zero Sugar and decreased investments in core manufacturers like Mountain Dew. Furthermore, as a substitute of placing cash into these confirmed manufacturers and merchandise, Pepsi has overextended into weaker manufacturers like Starry, Rockstar, and SodaStream, whereas additionally increasing into different stock-keeping items, or SKUs, together with limited-time choices and taste extensions, leading to larger manufacturing and distribution prices. Because of this, PBNA has round 70% extra SKUs than Coca-Cola regardless of producing about 15% much less in retail gross sales.
PBNA’s weaknesses have pressured Pepsi to turn into more and more depending on PFNA, and its FLNA core, to maintain total development and meet efficiency targets.
In 2020, anticipating elevated demand from Covid, Pepsi started to pursue aggressive funding in PFNA, with capital expenditures rising from $3.3 billion in 2018 to $5.2 billion in 2022. There was some logic to this choice on the time, however the Covid-fueled development did not final. But capex has continued to rise to $5.3 billion in 2024, regardless of FLNA gross sales really contracting 0.5%.
To make issues worse, Pepsi was not simply growing capex, however promoting, basic and administraive prices as effectively and PFNA’s working margins fell from 30% to 25% over this time interval.
These issues have closely weighed on Pepsi’s total efficiency, because it has prompted the market to largely overlook its affluent worldwide enterprise, which is rising rapidly with increasing margins. As soon as a premium development providing, Pepsi at present trades at 18x P/E versus a ten-year common of 22x, and an over 4 flip low cost to its benchmark in comparison with a historic 1.4 flip premium.
Elliott, who has introduced a $4 billion place in PepsiCo, issued a letter and complete presentation detailing its alternative to reaccelerate development and enhance efficiency via better focus, improved operations, strategic reinvestment and enhanced accountability. For PBNA, Elliott believes step one is refranchising the bottling community. This transfer makes numerous sense – returning to a system that traditionally outperformed its closest competitor – from the time PepsiCo refranchised its bottlers in 1999 till it repurchased them in 2010, the PepsiCo system considerably outperformed the Coca-Cola system.
Subsequent is portfolio optimization. PBNA merely has too many merchandise and must rationalize its SKU depend and divest from underperforming manufacturers. Elliott factors to the latest sale of Rockstar to Celsius as a first-rate instance of the alternatives that exist to simplify the portfolio.
Each of those steps ought to liberate PBNA’s spending energy, which Elliott believes must be reinvested within the core soda franchises and choose new development classes (i.e. protein and probiotics). For PFNA, given its vital deceleration in top-line development, Elliott believes it’s time to halt this aggressive development technique and realign its price base and optimize the portfolio.
Elliott particularly factors to Quaker as a possible divesture, highlighting its heart of the plate merchandise that relaxation exterior FLNA’s snack core. Strikes like these would enable PFNA to focus on areas the place it has true aggressive benefit, particularly in its FLNA merchandise, in addition to assist restore margins and liberate capital for reinvestment in each natural development and accretive bolt-on M&A. Elliott believes that these modifications to the North American enterprise wouldn’t solely enhance the corporate’s operations but additionally assist reset the better Pepsi funding story.
At the moment, it is a story of underperformance and poor execution, which has weighed down on the corporate’s valuation and left the worldwide enterprise neglected and at a reduction.
Particularly, Elliott believes that if this plan is applied successfully, it will possibly present a minimum of 50% upside to shareholders. Elliott is likely one of the most prolific activist traders at the moment and has the assets and observe file to affect significant change at some of these megacap firms.
However observe file and assets are meaningless if you don’t current a complete plan that demonstrates a considerate path for long-term worth creation, and Elliott’s 74-page presentation does simply that.
Moreover, whereas activists are sometimes unfairly stereotyped as short-term traders due partly to some who’re sometimes accurately characterised that approach, this presentation must be seen as “Exhibit A” in how activists like Elliott have advanced through the years to be long-term minded in alignment with shareholders. Elliott’s plan consists of suggestions like: “Reinvest to Revitalize Core and Develop with Focus,” “Pursue Natural and Inorganic Funding To Drive Lengthy-Time period Development,” “then use the incremental proceeds from these actions to reinvest to drive long-term development,” and “By right-sizing prices and shedding non-core belongings, PFNA can unlock capital to reinvest each organically and inorganically to gas long-term develop.”
Actually, in 74 pages, Elliott makes use of the phrase “reinvest” 54 occasions and never as soon as makes use of the phrase “buyback” regardless of acknowledging how undervalued Pepsi shares at the moment are. Sure, share buybacks now may be nice for the short-term, however Elliott’s reinvestment plan is what shall be greatest for the long-term.
For all of those causes, it’s exhausting to argue with Elliott’s evaluation or suggestions and we might anticipate that shareholders and administration agree with a lot, if not all, of it. Assuming that, the subsequent step is execution of the plan and this may be probably the most understated, however vital, a part of Elliott’s presentation.
activist and good board members help administration in executing their plan however holds them accountable in the event that they fall brief. That’s precisely what we anticipate Elliott to do right here. At this early stage, Elliott’s plan seems simple sufficient that we don’t anticipate there to be a lot pushback, and governance modifications don’t appear essential at this level to make an impression. That being stated, we anticipate Elliott to repeatedly monitor the state of affairs and progress of administration and maintain them accountable in the event that they fail to ship on strategic actions and up to date monetary targets.
Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional analysis service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio supervisor of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.
