NPR’s Steve Inskeep speaks with retired Military Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman in regards to the present state of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Alexander Vindman is with us subsequent. He is a retired U.S. Military lieutenant colonel who served as director for European affairs and was the highest Ukraine professional on the Nationwide Safety Council through the first Trump administration. Welcome to this system, sir.
ALEXANDER VINDMAN: Thanks, Steve. And good morning to you and your great listeners.
INSKEEP: Wonderful. Properly, what do you make of President Zelenskyy’s strategy right here, saying, for instance, positive, we will discuss giving up territory if there’s a vote first.
VINDMAN: It’s fairly savvy. I feel this paired together with the response to Donald Trump calling for elections is an efficient strategy {that a} Democratic chief ought to take, bringing the matter to his folks and having his inhabitants weigh in on each the elections and this territorial swap, or making a gift of territory. He feels fairly comfy based mostly on the truth that he is received knowledge that his inhabitants just isn’t prepared to sacrifice vital items of territory central to Ukraine’s protection presently as a result of Ukraine just isn’t dropping on the battlefield.
INSKEEP: Let’s speak that half by way of. You say Ukraine just isn’t dropping on the battlefield. They’ve definitely misplaced hundreds and hundreds of individuals. What’s the scenario proper now?
VINDMAN: For those who’re trying on the tactical battlefield, Russians are gaining floor. However they’re doing it at an exceptionally excessive value. This 12 months in 2025, they have been combating for one explicit metropolis, Pokrovsk. Earlier than the warfare, there was a inhabitants of about 30,000. They haven’t but taken this one metropolis at the price of tens of hundreds of killed and wounded. Actually, should you have a look at the combination of all of Russia’s warfare efforts this 12 months, it is a whole lot of hundreds with actually nothing to point out for.
Now, the Ukrainians have given up small tracts of territory. However that is a part of their technique. They’re buying and selling house for time. The larger a part of this battlefield is that the Russians are punishing vitality, utilities, water. And the Ukrainians are punishing Russia’s cash mill, which is vitality and gasoline. So it appears much more sort of static and at equilibrium at these echelons. For those who’re solely trying on the tactical battlefield, it appears like Russia is profitable. However that is a mistake to look in that one spot.
INSKEEP: Russia has misplaced huge casualties on the battlefield. However every time I take into consideration that, I take into consideration the historical past of that nation in World Warfare II and World Warfare I, and the Crimean warfare. Way back to you need, the Russian army tradition was to not care about army casualties. Are they anyplace close to the purpose the place they must care about their losses?
VINDMAN: I feel they do care about their casualties from sort of a regime stability standpoint. And in the event that they must go to mass mobilizations, that is internally destabilizing. So I feel the actual fact is that, you recognize, this isn’t inexhaustible useful resource for Russia. And also you referenced a few of the lengthy wars that Russia has engaged in. Three years, roughly, earlier than Russia was compelled out of World Warfare I. In World Warfare II, we’re actually speaking about, in earnest combating towards the Nazis, we’re speaking a few three-, four-year warfare. We’re about to hit the four-year nook on this warfare.
The most important advantages to Russia proper now are the truth that they’ve a real ally, in a variety of regards, with the Trump administration that’s sowing huge chaos amongst alliances, that’s backing away from conventional associates, that’s placing most strain on Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to attempt to take this capitulation, actually, formed as an ultimatum. And that it pays to endure. But when they do not see any further advantages, if the Europeans are beginning to consolidate and so they’re there in Ukraine’s hall it doesn’t matter what, that is a unique calculation. That is one thing that Putin goes to have to cost in.
INSKEEP: I wish to observe up on describing the Trump administration as an ally of Russia. I perceive why you’ll say that. And but, it appears Russia retains not doing what the Trump administration would really like, declining to go the place the Trump administration desires to nudge them.
VINDMAN: I feel that the Trump administration is an enormous ally in that it is sowing this chaos on the worldwide stage and amongst the normal alliance construction, that it is prepared to place huge strain on Ukraine, on the identical time, not offering a lot in the best way of help. Simply take into consideration this nationwide safety technique that was launched this week and the way the Russians say that we will work with this – there’s lots right here – this aligns with our worldview. That they are proud of the spheres of affect.
It doesn’t suggest that they must – you recognize, that they’ll get every part that they need. And primarily as a result of it is the Europeans and the Ukrainians which are saying, no, that is harmful to our nationwide safety. That is harmful to our survival. It isn’t simply in regards to the Russians and Trump. It is about these different energy blocs. And I feel whereas Russia finds a variety of like-minded, aligned considering, these different facilities don’t.
INSKEEP: Retired Military Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman. Thanks a lot in your time.
VINDMAN: Thanks.
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