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This week, Nationwide constructing society reported that the common UK home worth was £271,619 in June, because it dropped by an surprising 0.8 per cent in contrast with Might — the largest month-to-month fall in two years.
However how helpful is that this, on condition that, within the phrases of my late buddy Charles Fairhurst, “all residential is native”? What he meant was that the worth or lease of a house — and whether or not it’s purchased, let, and even constructed — is set as a lot by native components as by nationwide ones, similar to mortgage charges or taxation.
Native components can have an effect on how a lot it’s value and the way keen somebody is to dwell in it. This contains the specifics of the property, similar to its location however may prolong to components which can be much less simple to quantify similar to how the potential purchaser feels after they stroll within the door — I wished to purchase my house inside a minute of coming into. This variation results in a broad distribution of costs and worth progress {that a} single nationwide home worth measure can’t simply mirror. The prospects for the UK’s housing market in combination seem poor, with stagnation of costs and exercise wanting the most certainly end result over the following few years. However the efficiency of native housing markets may very well be fairly totally different.
Native housing markets are likely to observe what property brokers name the housing market cycle. Within the early levels of the cycle, similar to following the early Nineties or late 2000s downturns, housing market exercise and costs are likely to get well first in central London earlier than the restoration spreads out north and south-west throughout the capital. It then strikes into the house counties, and additional afield into the costlier elements of southern England. Ultimately, if the cycle continues for lengthy sufficient, it spreads into the lowest-priced markets. For instance, after I begin seeing Kilmarnock, a spot I had household hyperlinks to, topping the charts for home worth progress I do know we’re in all probability within the latter levels of the cycle.
There have been indicators that we’re within the latter a part of the cycle for some time now. East Ayrshire council space, house of Kilmarnock, began hitting the higher finish of the native authority worth progress charts again in 2019 and, as I explored in a earlier article, the central London housing market has been stagnating since 2014.
There was a short interlude following the pandemic, as a result of race for house, with a burst of exercise and home worth progress throughout the nation — together with within the south of England. However since mortgage charges began rising in 2022, there was additional divergence between the south of England and the remainder of the UK — reinforcing the view that we’re within the later levels of the housing market cycle.
Regardless of rising charges being a nationwide phenomenon, it has had totally different impacts on native markets. Whereas the speedy affect of rising charges in 2022 was related throughout the nation, with costs falling by about 5 per cent, the trajectory of native market home costs has been extra assorted since then. Costs in London and the south of England could have stagnated however markets throughout the remainder of the UK rapidly recovered — with nominal costs now above their 2022 peak in lots of locations.
The rationale for this variation is that mortgage debtors in costlier elements of the market, such because the south of England, have tended to take out bigger loans relative to their incomes than in different elements of the nation. Sadly, rising mortgage charges make these bigger loans unaffordable and so fewer folks can afford to purchase. In the meantime, these that may nonetheless purchase are caught with greater mortgage repayments. For instance, UK Finance information for the primary quarter of 2025 exhibits the standard first-time purchaser in south- east England had mortgage repayments equal to 23.8 per cent of their gross revenue in contrast with 19.4 per cent in each their northern England and Northern Eire areas. That’s greater than a few years in the past however exhibits there’s nonetheless capability to borrow in additional reasonably priced markets, regardless of the present mortgage fee setting. Consequently, markets with cheaper price to earnings ratios have sometimes seen costs rise over the previous couple of years, whereas costlier markets have seen costs fall.
Wanting forward, it seems this native market variation goes to proceed. A rising problem for costlier markets is the rising variety of houses listed on the market. Zoopla evaluation exhibits an inverse relationship between modifications in home costs and the variety of houses listed on the market over the previous yr. The largest will increase within the variety of houses on the market have been recorded within the south of England, the place worth progress has been extra subdued, whereas the remainder of the UK has seen extra restricted progress in houses that can be purchased and, together with higher affordability, greater worth progress.
There seems to be a mismatch in costlier markets between the worth that sellers need and what patrons can afford. Many potential sellers have worth expectations that had been set within the post-pandemic market when purchaser demand was supported by mortgage charges beneath 2 per cent.
Sadly, most patrons are actually constrained by mortgage charges at 4 per cent or above. Gross sales are nonetheless taking place the place vendor’s worth expectations are life like, however there’s a rising variety of houses the place that isn’t the case. For instance, Zoopla studies that, whereas the common time to promote is 45 days, 22 per cent of listed houses have been in the marketplace for greater than six months.
Relatively than marking the tip of the earlier housing market cycle, the rise in mortgage charges has bolstered the patterns often seen in its latter levels. Wanting forward, it’s not but clear what might set off an finish to this stalemate past a continued gradual stagnation with affordability enhancing on account of rising incomes and a slight easing in mortgage charges.
So the place does this depart the Nationwide UK home worth index and different nationwide indicators? They’re nonetheless helpful as a measure for the overall well being and path of the housing market, however when you’re seeking to promote or construct a house, it is very important listen to what’s taking place in your native market. In the event you don’t, then you definately may discover your property added to the rising record of these which can be struggling to promote.
Neal Hudson is a housing market analyst and founding father of the consultancy BuiltPlace
