A new Victorian state poll reveals the Coalition leading with 29% primary vote support, while One Nation surges to 21%, narrowing the gap with Labor ahead of the November election.
Victorian State Poll Results
A DemosAU poll conducted from February 1 to 10 with 1,274 respondents shows the Coalition at 29% primary vote, down eight points from October. Labor follows at 23%, down three points, with One Nation at 21%—a figure not previously tracked. The Greens hold steady at 15%, and others drop to 12%.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor 53-47, marking a two-point gain for the Coalition. Even if Labor trails One Nation in primaries, Greens preferences could push Labor ahead of One Nation. These numbers suggest the Coalition could secure a majority of the 88 lower house seats, though One Nation might claim some, potentially requiring Coalition-One Nation cooperation for government.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan records a net favorability of -37, with 53% viewing her negatively and 16% positively. Liberal leader Jess Wilson nets +3 (27% positive, 24% negative) and leads Allan as preferred premier 40-31, improving from previous margins.
Crime tops voter concerns at 30%, followed by cost of living at 29% and housing affordability at 12%. Labor has governed Victoria for the past 12 years and 23 of the last 27, fueling an “it’s time” sentiment.
Upper House Voting Intentions
Upper house preferences show Coalition at 28% (down two points), One Nation at 20% (up nine), Labor at 19% (down two), Greens at 14% (steady), Legalise Cannabis at 5% (up three), and Animal Justice at 4% (up one). All 40 upper house seats go to election in November via proportional representation in eight five-member electorates. The Coalition and One Nation together favor a majority.
Nepean By-Election Looms
A by-election arises in Nepean following Liberal MP Sam Groth’s resignation. Groth won the seat in 2022 with 56.4% two-party preferred over Labor (43.6%), from primaries of 48.1% Liberal, 32.6% Labor, and 8.8% Greens.
Federal Liberal Leadership Shift
Angus Taylor emerged as the new federal Liberal leader last Friday, defeating Sussan Ley 34-17 in a party room ballot. Ley plans to resign from parliament, triggering a by-election in Farrer. She won Farrer in 2025 with 56.2% over independent Michelle Milthorpe (43.8%), and 62.9% two-party over Labor. Primaries were 43.4% Ley, 20.0% Milthorpe, 15.1% Labor, 6.6% One Nation, and 4.9% Greens. Contenders include One Nation, Milthorpe, Liberals, and Nationals.
National Polls: Resolve and Morgan
A Resolve poll for Nine newspapers (February 8-14, 1,800 respondents) post-leadership spill gives Labor 32% primary (up two), Coalition 23% (down five), One Nation 23% (up five), Greens 11% (up one), independents 6%, and others 5%. Applying 2025 flows yields Labor leading Coalition nearly 54-46.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval rises to -20 (55% poor, 35% good). Ley’s final net approval falls to -23. Albanese leads as preferred PM 38-22. Pauline Hanson’s net likeability is +7, ahead of others. Cost of living dominates issues at 45%. Liberals edge Labor 24-23 on cost of living management; economic management ties at 26-26.
A pre-spill Morgan poll (February 9-13, 1,216 respondents) shows Labor at 30.5% (up two), One Nation 25% (up 0.5), Coalition 20% (down 2.5), Greens 13% (down 0.5), and others 11.5%. Labor leads Coalition 58.5-41.5 on preferences, or 55-45 on 2025 flows.
Tasmanian Poll Update
A DemosAU poll in Tasmania (January 27-February 12, 1,071 respondents) has Liberals at 35% primary (down six), Labor 23% (down one), independents 17% (up three), Greens 15%, Shooters 4% (up two), and others 6%. One Nation was not included as it lacks registration.
Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff nets +2 approval (down three), leading Labor’s Josh Willie (-7, down two) 43-32 as preferred premier. Others trail: Eric Abetz -21, Dean Winter -23 (up ten), Rosalie Woodruff -21.
