Al Carns, a former Special Forces commander, warns that Britain confronts the risk of war with Russia within three to five years and lacks the readiness to respond effectively.
Military Background and Achievements
Carns, 45, joined the Royal Marines in 1999 and completed five operational tours in Afghanistan. He came close to death four times, earning the Military Cross in 2011 for gallant and distinguished service. Later honors include the Companion of the Distinguished Service Order—featuring King Charles’s cypher—and an OBE.
With 24 years in the Special Boat Service (SBS), Carns now serves as Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak and Minister of State for the Armed Forces. He remains a military reservist, recently completing Arctic training in Norway.
Impending Threat from Russia
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Carns assesses the UK has a narrow window to deter conflict. He states: “When it comes to deterring Russia, we have three to five years before we have to fight a significant confrontation with a major state, a geographically constrained conflict in some shape or form.”
The UK’s military, he argues, relies on outdated tactics from the 1980s and 1990s. “We’ve got to move faster, and on everything,” Carns emphasizes.
Lessons from Ukraine: The Drone Revolution
The Ukraine conflict prompted Carns to leave the military just before promotion to brigadier. Concerned that defense leaders failed to grasp evolving warfare, he entered politics. Drones now dominate: one drone matches the lethality of 22 artillery rounds, causing 87% of frontline casualties.
Carns compares the shift to a farmer upgrading from a scythe to a combine harvester. He questions current training: “The army and the Marines are training a sniper to shoot one round 800 metres, from the point of aim to the point of impact. I could train my son in two weeks to kill you from 45 kilometres away with a fibre optic drone. So have we got the balance right?”
He pushes aggressively for drones and autonomous systems enhanced by AI, predicting that the force mastering their integration will prevail in future battles.
Commitment to Veterans and Personal Journey
Carns declines to detail his Special Forces operations, calling his Military Cross a “team event.” As a divorced father of three sons aged 22, 14, and 10, he advocates “a hand up, not a handout” for transitioning service members. He views himself as proof of state support, transforming from a troubled youth into a productive citizen.
