President Donald Trump has a Texas-sized conundrum on his fingers as Republicans put together for a Senate main within the state, with GOP Sen. John Cornyn making his case for the White Home to become involved as he tries to fend off a problem from state Lawyer Basic Ken Paxton.
However, up to now, Trump is staying on the sidelines.
“I’ve talked to him about it various occasions. He’s not able to make that endorsement,” Cornyn advised NBC Information on Tuesday. “I feel as we begin promoting and shutting the hole within the polls, hopefully he’ll see match to make that endorsement, however we will’t wait.”
“I identified to him, and he is aware of this, that if he endorsed me, the race can be over,” Cornyn later added.
However Cornyn is struggling in current main polling, as Paxton has pitched himself because the true exemplar of the occasion’s MAGA wing. Some Republicans are involved that Paxton — a conservative firebrand with no scarcity of non-public controversies, together with some that led to an impeachment push by various fellow Republicans in 2023 — might be a problematic normal election candidate who would pressure nationwide Republicans to spend tens of millions to defend the longtime pink seat.
These considerations received’t let up with the newest spherical of fundraising figures, launched Tuesday evening. Paxton lapped the senator in direct fundraising to their campaigns, although Cornyn’s whole political operation raised a major sum.
The race got here up at a White Home assembly final week between Trump, Senate Majority Chief John Thune, staffers with the Thune-aligned tremendous PAC Senate Management Fund, and different former Trump marketing campaign staffers. A supply with information of the assembly mentioned the group agreed that Cornyn and allies must focus over the summer time on bettering the incumbent’s ballot numbers. Thune advised NBC Information that the assembly “coated a complete vary of races across the nation” however declined to enter element.
Paxton’s workforce has additionally been in contact with the White Home political workforce and sharing polling information, in accordance with a supply near his marketing campaign.
In public surveys, the College of Texas at Tyler discovered Paxton main Cornyn by a margin of 44%-34%, whereas Texas Southern College discovered Paxton main 43%-34%. Each polls discovered a couple of quarter of voters undecided. Different personal polls by outdoors teams with pores and skin within the sport have proven Paxton with an excellent bigger lead.
That is removed from the primary time Cornyn, a 40-year veteran of elected politics within the state, has confronted points on his proper flank. His most up-to-date problem got here in 2014, when he received 59% of the GOP main vote.
However it might be essentially the most critical hazard of his Senate profession. Cornyn finds himself not solely in a modified nationwide occasion remade by Trump however in the midst of a civil warfare in his state between the institution and the conservative forces that fueled the rise of Sen. Ted Cruz and different tea occasion Republicans, led to turmoil within the state legislature and contributed to the impeachment push in opposition to and subsequent acquittal of Paxton.
“We’re within the day and age of: The Republican Social gathering is Trump’s occasion. And Paxton has achieved an excellent job of being very outfront, being very vocal, being a robust defender of Trump, which voters — that’s the lens that they give the impression of being by way of and consider candidates by,” mentioned Matt Langston, a Republican strategist within the state who will not be concerned within the race.
Major picks up
Paxton was fast to query Cornyn’s Trump connections and his conservative chops when he launched his marketing campaign.
In 2023, Cornyn responded to the allegations that Trump mishandled categorized paperwork by telling a neighborhood information reporter that “he’s created a circumstance for himself which is, I feel, very critical.” That very same 12 months, Cornyn responded to the civil verdict discovering Trump answerable for sexual abuse by saying “I don’t assume he may win the presidency” as a result of “electability is … the only criterion.”
Cornyn’s opponents have additionally criticized his previous votes on some gun management and immigration payments.
It’s why Cornyn has spent the months portraying himself as a staunch supporter of Trump. In March, he posted a photograph of him studying Trump’s e-book on social media. His pinned picture on X is a photograph of him with Trump. And his marketing campaign repeatedly touts his file of voting for Trump’s priorities within the Senate. Cornyn co-chaired a Senate Judiciary Committee listening to final month delving into questions on former President Joe Biden’s health for workplace.
“I feel we have to remind individuals of my assist for President Trump and his agenda, which is a couple of 99.2% voting file together with his first time period and now in his second time period,” Cornyn advised NBC Information, referencing a memo from his Senate workplace that detailed greater than 600 of Cornyn’s votes since 2017. That memo additionally touted Cornyn’s work to assist Trump’s Supreme Court docket and different judicial nominees, the 2017 tax cuts and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada commerce settlement.
On Wednesday, a pro-Cornyn tremendous PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, launched a tv advert marketing campaign throughout the state, in accordance with the ad-tracking agency AdImpact.
“Meet the person who votes with President Trump over 99% of the time,” a narrator says within the group’s first TV advert, which additionally options footage of Trump praising Cornyn at a rally.
Chris LaCivita, a former high Trump marketing campaign official, is working with the tremendous PAC as its senior adviser, in accordance with three individuals conversant in Cornyn’s marketing campaign. Tony Fabrizio, a high Trump pollster, is working straight with Cornyn’s marketing campaign.
Paxton’s vulnerabilities
Whereas Paxton has been attempting to lob bombs at Cornyn from his proper flank, Cornyn and his workforce are prepared to use the lawyer normal’s a number of controversies.
“The luggage that my opponent would convey into the election would make it possible that we’d lose that seat to a Democrat if he had been the nominee. So I’m not going to let that occur,” Cornyn mentioned.
Paxton was indicted on securities fraud expenses in 2015 and finally reached a deal to keep away from a trial. However associated allegations — plus accusations together with bribery and misuse of his workplace — led the GOP-controlled state Home to question him in 2023, although the state Senate acquitted him.
Prosecuting Paxton on moral grounds shall be a centerpiece of Cornyn’s marketing campaign. He blasted Paxton’s bid as a “con man’s self-importance venture” and launched a “Crooked Ken” web site detailing the impeachment and allegations of adultery that stemmed from that investigation.
Paxton’s pending divorce from spouse, state Sen. Angela Paxton, introduced these allegations again into the highlight. Angela Paxton posted on X final week that she “filed for divorce on biblical grounds…in mild of current discoveries.”
The day of Paxton’s divorce announcement was his marketing campaign’s second-largest small-dollar fundraising day since his launch, in accordance with an individual near the Paxton marketing campaign.
However Paxton’s allies see these controversies as fueling his repute as a fighter amongst grassroots Republicans.
“Ken has a robust 40, 45% of MAGA voters that received’t go away him,” mentioned Paxton adviser Nick Maddux. “They’ve seen him struggle, they’ve seen him within the trials and so they like what he’s achieved. And Cornyn’s by no means achieved that. He doesn’t have a tough base of assist.”
Paxton’s marketing campaign additionally raised $2.9 million from April by way of June, ending the quarter with $2.5 million in its marketing campaign account. Cornyn’s marketing campaign raised $804,000 and ended the quarter with $5.9 million readily available, whereas his joint fundraising committee raised $3.1 million and had $2.7 million readily available.
The Cornyn marketing campaign’s haul marked its second-worst quarter over the senator’s previous two election cycles on the poll (2020 and 2014). However the marketing campaign dismissed any considerations about his fundraising.
“Senator Cornyn is a really sturdy fundraiser, all the time has been and can proceed to be,” mentioned Cornyn marketing campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiack, who mentioned specializing in the joint fundraising committee was a “strategic” transfer to have the ability to entry decrease tv advert charges.
A rising discipline?
Whereas Cornyn and Paxton battle, it’s attainable the first discipline may develop.
Rep. Wesley Hunt advised NBC Information late final month he nonetheless hasn’t decided about whether or not to run for Senate, however the two-term Republican notes he hasn’t seen a ballot exhibiting Cornyn can beat Paxton in a main.
Requested if that’s a priority in Texas, he advised NBC Information: “It needs to be.”
Hunt’s Home marketing campaign committee lately launched a cable advert purchase that reaches past his Houston-area district, into the Dallas and San Antonio media markets, in accordance AdImpact. Hunt additionally shared a minute-long spot that options Trump praising him, and a pro-Hunt outdoors group, Standing for Texas, has additionally spent greater than $2 million up to now on adverts boosting him across the state.
GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson additionally advised NBC Information this week that he has not dominated out operating for Senate and he’s going to “preserve my powder dry proper now.”
“Lots of people assume Ken Paxton may need hassle within the normal,” Jackson mentioned, noting there are considerations amongst Republicans {that a} aggressive Texas race would pull assets from different battleground states.
That concern is partly why Senate Republican leaders, together with Thune and Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, are backing Cornyn.
“We’d like an electable candidate that may win not only a main, however a normal, and we imagine there’s a path there for Cornyn to win each,” Thune lately advised NBC Information.
Democrats have lengthy sought to show Texas blue, however they haven’t been in a position to construct on a slim loss to Cruz in 2018. Trump received Texas by 8 share factors final 12 months, whereas Cruz defeated former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred almost 9 factors. Allred lately launched one other run for Senate.
Langston, the GOP strategist, didn’t purchase the argument that Paxton would put the seat in danger if he’s the nominee, given the state’s pink hue.
“You would need to have nearly 100% of registered Democrats popping out to vote, plus a great 10 or 12% of Republicans crossing over,” he mentioned. “It’s simply by no means going to occur.”
