Democrats are nonetheless in denial about Washington, DC’s crime downside, and decrying President Donald Trump’s intervention — but it surely’s time they face actuality.
Over the past 12 days, as Trump federalized the DC police drive and deployed federal officers on district streets, the town’s shockingly excessive homicide price screeched to a halt.
No homicides had been recorded in any respect in that timeframe, a pointy, statistically vital drop that’s far too giant to dismiss as mere probability.
Leftists might resist the reality, but it surely’s easy: Once you increase the dangers of committing crime, crime falls.
Critics like DC Legal professional Basic Brian Schwalb referred to as Trump’s enforcement takeover “pointless,” whereas Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson predicted it could “inflame tensions” and enhance crime.
“I stroll round on a regular basis . . . and I really feel completely protected,” claimed Senate Minority Chief Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — who by no means travels with out an armed safety element.
Schumer insists Democrats will deploy the filibuster subsequent month to dam Trump from extending his takeover past the 30 days allowed by legislation.
But DC’s crime charges (even utilizing the reported numbers that native whistleblowers say are suspect) are shockingly excessive in comparison with the remainder of the nation.
In 2024, DC’s homicide price was 136% greater than that of Louisiana, the nation’s worst state, and a shocking 434% greater than the nationwide state common.
Amongst our nation’s 25 most populous cities, DC had the worst homicide price — 28% greater than second-place Indianapolis and 179% greater than the group’s common.
However federal motion is altering the image: Extra officers on the streets, and prosecutors dedicated to charging criminals, look like making a distinction.
The proof? For a minimum of 12 straight days, by means of Sunday, Aug. 24, DC recorded zero homicides — not one.
Statistically, in comparison with the murder price throughout the first seven months of this yr, the percentages of that taking place by probability are simply 0.37%, or 1 in 272.
In comparison with 2024 — when the district recorded 187 homicides, or almost two a day — the percentages shrink to 0.21%, or 1 in 478.
Few gamblers would take these odds in a guess.
In fact, these calculations depend on the district’s reported murder numbers — which can be artificially low.
Retired DC murder sergeant Carlos Bundy alleged in a 2021 lawsuit that the division was routinely “mis-categorizing deaths as one thing apart from a murder to be able to hold the District’s murder numbers down” — for instance, mislabeling unnatural deaths as accidents or as “undetermined.”
The federal Division of Justice and congressional Republicans are investigating his and different whistleblowers’ studies.
If Bundy’s claims maintain true, the true murder decline this month is even bigger than it appears — and the statistical significance even stronger.
Police visibility alone seems to be taking part in a significant function on this highly effective shift.
As of December, the DC police division had 1,340 patrol officers on a complete drive of about 3,400.
However after all, not all officers are at work concurrently. If roughly a 3rd of them are on responsibility at any given time, solely 450 or so patrol officers and 1,130 officers of any sort can be found to serve a metropolis of 720,000.
Trump’s addition of over 500 federal legislation enforcement officers and about 800 Nationwide Guard troops supplied a pointy and fast increase to the division’s road presence, calming mayhem dramatically.
In the meantime, Trump’s US attorneys for DC, Ed Martin and later Jeanine Pirro, have each taken motion to crack down on violence by launching federal prosecutions and pretrial detentions in gun-related crimes.
And who advantages most? The district’s black residents.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb and different Democrats have been howling that Trump’s intervention is “stoking racial division” — however they’re ignoring the important thing indisputable fact that victims of violent crime in DC are overwhelmingly African American.
A Nationwide Institute for Felony Justice Reform evaluation of DC homicides between 2019 and 2021 discovered that about 96% of victims had been black.
Black residents undergo disproportionately in different crime classes as effectively, and so they’re damage by the corollary results of excessive crime as companies shut down, jobs disappear, shops shut their doorways and property values take successful.
On Sept. 10, Trump can search congressional approval to increase his federalization of DC’s policing.
Schumer might effectively have the ability to dam that transfer, but when homicide and violent crime stay this low below Trump’s experimental oversight, Democrats should clarify to the district’s beleaguered residents why they selected thwarting Trump over saving black lives.
John R. Lott Jr. is president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle.
