China is prone to see 300,000 driverless cabs function in its 4 top-tier cities as early as 2030, buoyed by developments in synthetic intelligence (AI) and its extremely aggressive electrical car (EV) sector, UBS stated on Thursday.
The variety of robotaxis on the mainland was anticipated to leap to 4 million by the late 2030s, as extra Chinese language passengers have been keen to embrace new applied sciences, stated Paul Gong, head of China automotive analysis at UBS.
“Given the quick improvement of applied sciences and the more and more costly labour price, autonomous autos will probably be extremely useful in driving productiveness,” he stated, including that the robotaxi market in mainland China might ultimately hit US$183 billion a 12 months if all the 2 million taxis and 5 million automobiles operating on ride-hailing platforms are changed by driverless cabs.
Do you’ve got questions in regards to the greatest matters and developments from world wide? Get the solutions with SCMP Data, our new platform of curated content material with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics dropped at you by our award-winning workforce.
Gong was unable to offer a time-frame for the total commercialisation of the robotaxi enterprise on the mainland as a result of it hinged on regulation and buyer reactions.
His bullish forecast echoed an HSBC estimate final month that robotaxis would account for six per cent of the nation’s whole taxi market. The financial institution stated the market dimension would prime US$40 billion a 12 months initially, although it didn’t elaborate on when native operators might obtain the purpose.
Except for serving human passengers, autonomous taxis on the mainland might additionally generate income value US$30 billion a 12 months by providing logistics and supply providers, HSBC stated in a analysis report revealed on July 14.
Gong stated the decrease price of constructing EVs with autonomous applied sciences was the largest development driver for the growth of robotaxi fleets on the mainland. The manufacturing price of constructing a self-driving taxi could be diminished to lower than 300,000 yuan (US$41,935), he added.
A few years in the past, robotaxi executives stated every autonomous automotive price them about 500,000 yuan.
Based on present requirements, robotaxis have stage 4 (L4) self-driving capabilities. Meaning they don’t require human intervention in most circumstances, in keeping with SAE Worldwide, a worldwide requirements physique. L4 is seen as an essential step on the best way to stage 5 totally autonomous driving, which might allow producers and freight firms to function driverless fleets.
The mainland’s 4 first-tier cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – have begun trial runs of robotaxis. Main gamers embody Apollo, Pony.ai and WeRide.
They operated dozens of driverless taxis in designated areas and charged charges that have been as little as 10 per cent of the typical experience at current.
Apollo, Baidu’s self-driving unit, operated one of many world’s largest networks of robotaxis in Wuhan, the capital of central Hubei province, the place tons of of driverless taxis might cowl 35 per cent of town’s roads.
Tesla was additionally searching for approval from regulators to function its robotaxi enterprise on the mainland, in keeping with a report revealed by state-run China Each day final 12 months.
Chinese language autonomous driving agency Pony.ai is gearing as much as mass produce driverless cabs to make its robotaxis extensively out there and extra reasonably priced, as technological developments have helped it shorten its path to commercialisation.
The highest Chinese language robotaxi corporations have been additionally trying to increase their companies overseas to chase better earnings.
Lou Tiancheng, co-founder and chief expertise officer of Guangzhou-based Pony.ai, informed the Put up in July that the corporate’s manufacturing of autonomous automobiles would decide up within the second half of 2025.
This text initially appeared within the South China Morning Put up (SCMP), essentially the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for greater than a century. For extra SCMP tales, please discover the SCMP app or go to the SCMP’s Fb and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Put up Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Put up Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
