Canada’s Population Shrinks for Third Consecutive Quarter
For the third quarter in a row, Canada’s population has experienced a decline, marking an unprecedented nine-month period that has seen the nation’s population decrease by a total of 180,000 individuals. This demographic shift is largely attributed to government efforts to curb the significant surge in temporary migration that Canada experienced between 2022 and 2024.
Asylum Claims Reach Record Highs
Despite the overall population decrease, several other immigration streams continue to operate at generational, if not all-time, highs. This is particularly evident in the realm of asylum seekers. Recent data from Statistics Canada reveals an unprecedented 525,479 asylum claimants currently in the country, a figure comparable to the entire population of Halifax. This represents a more than threefold increase from the 166,780 asylum claimants recorded in Canada just four years ago, on April 1, 2022. On average, Canada has been admitting 245 new asylum claimants daily over the past four years.
Permanent Immigration Remains Robust
In terms of permanent immigration, Canada is on track to record one of the highest intake years of the last century. During the first four months of 2026, 83,149 permanent immigrants entered the country. If this pace continues, Canada is projected to welcome 330,000 new permanent immigrants by the end of 2026. While this figure is below the government’s target of 380,000 permanent immigrants for 2026, it remains significantly higher than the average intake over the past hundred years. For comparison, Canada’s permanent resident intake averaged 220,000 per year throughout the 1990s, and just 107,000 annually in the 1980s. Even as recently as 2014, the intake of 260,400 immigrants was identified by Statistics Canada as one of the highest levels in over a century.
Historical Context of Permanent Immigration
Even if the annual target of 380,000 permanent residents is not met this year, 2026 is still poised to become the sixth-highest year for permanent immigration since the First World War. The only years with higher figures were a five-year period from 2021 to 2025, during which permanent immigration averaged 439,000 annually.
Non-Permanent Resident Numbers Decline but Remain High
Statistics Canada confirmed that Canada’s estimated population dropped by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026, a net decrease of 55,025 people. This decline was predominantly driven by a reduction of 117,879 individuals in the ‘non-permanent resident’ category. However, this category still remains at historic highs following a substantial surge in temporary migrants entering Canada in the years immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2022 and 2024, Canada’s non-permanent resident population more than doubled, growing from 1.4 million to 3.2 million, representing an average daily increase of 1,600 people.
Drivers of the Temporary Migration Surge
This surge was fueled by a significant relaxation of standards and quotas for various visa categories, including student visas and temporary foreign worker permits. In 2023 alone, immigration officials approved a record 684,000 study permits, nearly double the 356,000 issued in 2018, a pre-pandemic year.
Government Acknowledges Population Shift
The administration has actively promoted its strategy to manage the immigration surges of 2022 to 2024. Immigration Minister Lena Diab cited the population decline as evidence that the government’s plan for “responsible, sustainable immigration is working.” She stated in the House of Commons that “The non-permanent resident population has declined.”
Current Status of Non-Permanent Residents
Despite the recent decline, Statistics Canada reports that Canada’s non-permanent resident population still stands at 2.6 million. This means approximately one in every 16 people in Canada is present on temporary status. This figure contrasts sharply with 2018, when the highest number on record for temporary migrants was 1,055,010, representing about 38 percent of the current non-permanent resident population. When the current governing party first took office in 2015, the non-permanent resident population was 750,000, approximately 29 percent of today’s figures.
