Keir Starmer has stepped down as the leader of the Labour party, effectively ending his term as UK prime minister. The decision follows Andy Burnham’s significant victory in the Makerfield by-election, which intensified the pressure on Starmer to the point where he could no longer continue. This marks the sixth instance of a British prime minister resigning within the past decade.
Sources indicate that the final erosion of support within the party and cabinet, confirmed through private discussions over the weekend, was the immediate catalyst for his departure. Starmer has outlined his departure plan to avoid the mass resignations that characterized the exits of former Conservative prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, aiming for a more controlled transition.
A Leader’s Reflection Amidst Political Turmoil
Despite his stated intentions to persevere, Starmer’s emotional statement reflecting on his time in office suggests an acknowledgment of his perceived failure. His popularity was notably low even before assuming the premiership. On the eve of the 2024 general election, his net satisfaction rating, according to Ipsos, stood at a historic low of minus 21. While 31% of the public expressed satisfaction with his performance, a significant 52% were dissatisfied, representing the first time a leader had secured a parliamentary majority with such a negative approval rating.
However, within the volatile landscape of British politics since the Brexit referendum, such figures have become increasingly common. His predecessor, Rishi Sunak, entered the 2024 campaign with a net satisfaction score of minus 56, as reported by YouGov. There was an expectation that Starmer’s popularity might surge following a Labour victory after 14 years in opposition. This contrasts with the substantial post-election approval enjoyed by past leaders like Tony Blair, whose satisfaction ratings soared to plus 60 after his 1997 win, and David Cameron, who saw a jump to plus 21 after forming the coalition in 2010.
The Fleeting ‘Honeymoon’ Period
Typically, the office of prime minister confers an aura of competence. Starmer’s popularity did see an improvement, though it reached only a modest level of neutrality. Following the election, his net favourability rose to plus 3 in an Opinium poll, with YouGov recording a similar recovery to near breakeven. Unlike the sustained enthusiasm of the Blair era, Starmer’s post-election ‘bounce’ was a shallow recovery, offering little sustained advantage before public opinion shifted.
Despite this, his electoral majority appeared to place him in an unassailable position, a sentiment previously echoed for Boris Johnson. Following the 2019 election, there was widespread discussion of a potential “decade of dominance” for the Conservatives, fueled by the realignment of the “red wall” seats, which suggested a long-term Tory majority. However, Johnson’s tenure ended just over three years later, and current discourse points towards potential Conservative decline.
Identifying the Pitfalls in Starmer’s Tenure
The reasons behind Starmer’s struggles may be linked to the trajectory of his predecessor as Labour leader. Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings saw a dramatic decline from a competitive minus 11 during the 2017 campaign to a low of minus 44 by the time of his 2019 defeat. The strategic ambiguity that once unified his coalition faltered under the pressure of Brexit.
Starmer’s rise and fall occurred over a comparable timeframe and appears to stem from issues that resonate across both ideological wings of the Labour party. Analysis of election data, including the 2024 results, suggests that Labour’s polling leads were often driven less by enthusiasm for the party and more by a decline in government effectiveness. Labour secured approximately 64% of seats on just 34% of the vote in 2024, representing the lowest vote share for any majority government in history.
The Pincer Movement of Modern Politics
Similar to how Corbyn faced pressure from the populist-right Brexit Party and the pro-EU Liberal Democrats in 2019 due to his stance on Brexit, Starmer encountered a similar challenge in the mid-2020s. On one side, Reform UK attracted votes from Labour’s traditional heartlands. On the other, the Green Party and candidates with pro-Gaza platforms gained traction in urban progressive areas. The Green Party significantly increased its parliamentary representation in 2024, and candidates achieved notable successes in Labour strongholds.
Labour’s performance in office reflected these pressures, with by-election losses to both Reform UK and the Greens, poor local election results in England, and an inability to unseat the Scottish National Party in Scotland. This recent resignation occurred almost exactly ten years after the 2016 Brexit referendum, underscoring the enduring impact of the divisions created by that moment on contemporary British politics.
A Polarized Political Landscape
Current political analysis suggests that British politics is characterized by a two-bloc polarization, where voters are largely aligned within broad identity-based camps, with Brexit positioning serving as a key underlying factor. This polarization is further complicated by internal fragmentation within these blocs, leading to infrequent direct engagement with the issue itself.
While voters may coalesce against a perceived common adversary, deep divisions persist on other policy matters. This leaves leaders, including Starmer and Corbyn, in the challenging position of attempting to maintain fragile coalitions that are susceptible to collapse under shifting political tides.
