Australia’s Population Milestone and Political Divide
Australia’s population has officially surpassed the 28 million mark for the first time, largely propelled by international migration. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals that the nation’s population grew by 412,500 individuals in the year concluding December 31, 2025.
Migration’s Dominant Role
Net overseas migration (NOM) was the primary driver of this growth, accounting for 301,000 of the increase, representing nearly three-quarters of the total population expansion. The natural increase, births exceeding deaths, contributed an additional 111,500 people.
While the NOM figure is approximately 9 percent lower than the preceding year and over 45 percent down from its post-COVID peak in 2023, it remains at historically high levels. The data indicates that migration has consistently stayed above 300,000 for 14 consecutive quarters, a period spanning more than three and a half years, and has largely stabilized within a narrow range.
In the past four quarters, annual NOM figures have been recorded at 309,000, 302,000, 309,000, and most recently, 301,000. For the first half of the 2025-26 financial year, NOM stands at 145,000, which is less than half of the full-year Budget forecast of 295,000.
Government’s Perspective on Migration Trends
This decline in migration is attributed to adjustments across various visa categories, with NOM from temporary visa holders experiencing a 10 percent decrease over the past year. International student migration has also seen a 10 percent reduction, returning to pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, visitor migration continues to decline as more stringent visa regulations are implemented.
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke stated on Thursday that these latest migration figures demonstrate the effectiveness of the government’s strategy. “As the data shows, we are bringing migration down with a sensible, measured approach to provide the skilled workers Australia needs, while addressing exploitation and rorts,” he commented. “The numbers of temporary visa holders and international students also continue to fall, as we prioritize the skills that we need to care for our sick and elderly and build homes.”
Opposition’s Concerns Over Continued High Migration
However, the opposition contends that migration levels remain excessively high, continuing to strain housing and infrastructure. Shadow Immigration Minister Senator Jonno Duniam argued that the latest ABS figures contradict the government’s narrative.
“Labor keeps trying to tell Australians that the migration numbers are coming down, but the latest ABS figures again portray a very different story,” Senator Duniam asserted. “A NOM figure of 301,000 is still far too high – particularly at a time when Australians are struggling to find a home, rents remain under extreme pressure and public infrastructure and services are badly stretched.”
Senator Duniam emphasized that these figures suggest a sustained trend rather than a temporary fluctuation. “This is not a one-off number. Net overseas migration has now remained above 300,000 for 14 straight quarters – in other words, for three-and-a-half years,” he noted.
The senator also dismissed the government’s focus on the reduction from the 2023 peak. “Labor cannot keep pretending that things are on the right path, particularly by citing the ridiculous statistic that they’ve brought the numbers down by around 45 per cent from the unprecedented peaks on their watch in 2023,” he stated. “The truth is that migration remains at levels never seen under the former Coalition government, and that these elevated levels have now been sustained for 14 straight quarters.”
