Holidaymakers across Europe prepare for potential flight disruptions this summer as jet fuel supplies dwindle, with shortages possibly emerging in just six weeks. Officials simulate scenarios triggered by the Iran conflict, targeting as early as the late May bank holiday, which could upend thousands of family vacations at the start of peak season.
Escalating Jet Fuel Crisis
Jet fuel costs have doubled since the conflict began, driving up airfares that airlines pass directly to passengers. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issues a stark warning: Europe holds roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves. He highlights risks from the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil, remaining partially closed.
“Soon, news will break of flights from city A to city B getting cancelled due to jet fuel shortages,” Birol states. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe reports growing alarms among members, particularly at smaller facilities vulnerable to supply gaps. UK officials model disruptions in five to six weeks, projecting fewer than 10% of flights affected thanks to diversified suppliers. Airlines receive mandates for two weeks’ advance notice on any cancellations.
New Border Controls Spark Chaos
Compounding issues, the European Union’s Entry/Exit System (EES)—an automated border check for non-EU travelers—launches fully last week, prompting severe delays. Passengers at an Italian airport recently suffered vomiting and fainting after hours stranded in queues.
Thomas Reynaert, vice president of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), expresses deep concern: “We worry about unresolved EES glitches. Without sufficient staffing, functional e-gates, and reliable apps, families with children could face up to four-hour waits at popular destinations.” Experts predict overwhelmed airports during peak summer traffic.
Government and Industry Responses
UK ministers collaborate with carriers like British Airways, easyJet, and Ryanair through Airlines UK to mitigate fuel disruptions. “No current jet fuel issues exist,” the group notes, while a government spokesperson affirms: “We support British airlines amid Middle East tensions to minimize passenger impacts.”
In worst-case planning, emergency services gain priority: air ambulances, police helicopters, and lifeguard craft secure fuel first if supplies vanish.
Traveler Advice Amid Uncertainty
Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, advises: “Cancellations on package holidays or flights trigger refunds, but separate hotel bookings risk losses. Packages offer better protection than insurance, which often hides exclusions.”
Paul Charles, CEO of The PC Agency, cautions that record flight demand heightens risks: “Airlines might axe flights by late May. Even if the war ends soon, supply lags persist, severely hitting long-haul routes as carriers avoid stranding abroad without guaranteed fuel.”
