TPG’s specialists predict bank card tendencies for 2026

With the solar setting on 2025, we have been musing on what new and thrilling adjustments for bank cards, factors and miles could arrive in 2026. The previous yr featured sufficient product launches, card refreshes and program adjustments to make our heads spin, so we’re desirous to see if that momentum continues into the brand new yr.

I reached out to a few of my fellow bank card specialists right here at TPG to see what they give thought to the methods our trade would possibly change in 2026. Listed here are our ideas.

Refreshes of mid-tier bank cards

2025 ushered in refreshes of three of the most well-liked premium bank cards in the marketplace: the Chase Sapphire Reserve® (see charges and charges), the American Categorical Platinum Card® and The Enterprise Platinum Card® from American Categorical.

With these out of the way in which, each TPG bank cards author Augusta Stone and I imagine we’ll see issuers concentrate on their mid-tier merchandise subsequent.

I anticipate Chase to show its consideration to the beloved Chase Sapphire Most popular® Card (see charges and charges). We’ll probably see an annual payment improve as much as round $150, and no less than one or two new assertion credit to account for that.

This might be in keeping with what we have seen Chase do earlier than, comparable to when it refreshed the United℠ Explorer Card (see charges and charges) and elevated its payment from $95 to $150 (after the primary cardholder yr).

In Augusta’s opinion, the American Categorical® Inexperienced Card undoubtedly “wants a refresh.” She famous that the Amex Platinum and American Categorical® Gold Card each obtained refreshes previously couple of years, so it is sensible for it to be the Amex Inexperienced’s flip. The Amex Inexperienced’s lack of its LoungeBuddy profit and not using a substitute makes Augusta assume Amex could also be prepared to offer it a brand new coat of paint.

The knowledge for the American Categorical Inexperienced Card has been collected independently by The Factors Man. The cardboard particulars on this web page haven’t been reviewed or supplied by the cardboard issuer.

Persevering with devaluations of loyalty program switch charges

Worsening switch ratios are a comparatively new pattern this yr, albeit an unlucky one. Amex and Citi each devalued their Emirates Skywards switch ratios. Plus, Amex introduced a coming discount of its Cathay Pacific Asia Miles switch ratio.

Lead author Katie Genter and senior author Ben Smithson — two of TPG’s prime factors and miles specialists — imagine this pattern will proceed into 2026. Ben labeled it “worrying” and mentioned he fears it should turn out to be extra widespread.

Katie agreed, however whereas she suspects some applications will proceed to vary switch ratios to be lower than 1:1, she additionally believes that Chase will keep a 1:1 ratio for all of its applications, as it is a level of pleasure for the issuer.

The event of switch ratio devaluations underscores some extent we frequently make right here at TPG: Do not hoard your factors and miles. You by no means know after they’ll turn out to be much less invaluable, so redeem them for journey now.

Elevated emphasis on issuer journey portals

We have seen issuers present a extra vested curiosity of their journey portals this yr — notably Chase. Alongside its refresh of the Sapphire Reserve, Chase launched Factors Enhance to encourage eligible cardholders to make extra bookings via its platform, Chase Journey℠.

Augusta and Ben each imagine that we’ll see this flip into a correct pattern in 2026. Ben mentioned that with card issuers’ journey portals turning into extra complicated, he expects to see extra incentives, like excessive redemption values to guide throughout the card issuer’s ecosystem moderately than switch externally.

He warned, nevertheless, that cardholders ought to keep in mind that it may be dearer to guide via a journey portal.

Augusta believes that Factors Enhance will ignite a brand new issuer initiative to launch competing advantages. She highlighted Amex, Capital One and Citi because the probably contenders to launch a perk that competes with Factors Enhance. I count on Amex to be the primary to bat with this, because it’s Chase’s closest competitor.

Extra dynamically priced awards, much less time to snag them

Most airline loyalty applications use dynamic pricing at this level, however we largely have not seen them use it for tickets that are not on their very own metallic.

Ben believes we’ll see this happen on a bigger scale in 2026. He famous Air Canada Aeroplan’s use of dynamic pricing for United and Emirates awards as a great instance. He views this as a doubtlessly adverse growth, warning that we might see long-haul top notch Emirates flights as excessive as 400,000 factors for a single flight, for instance.

Alongside the looming menace of astronomically priced awards, Katie thinks we’ll have much less time to snag the redemptions we would like. She’s seen a pattern of award availability disappearing quickly, even when she acts instantly upon receiving an availability alert. With increasingly folks investing in factors and miles, Katie mentioned it’s going to solely turn out to be more durable to search out good worth redemptions.

Nonetheless, although, she encourages everybody to remain on the hunt for good offers.

Card launches galore

Whereas 2025 did see the launch of a handful of latest bank cards, the information cycle felt largely dominated by outstanding card refreshes. 2026 might very nicely reveal the alternative, with high-visibility product launches.

I am anticipating Chase’s extremely anticipated premium World of Hyatt card to reach in 2026. As somebody who predominantly stays with Hyatt, I will be paying shut consideration to any motion right here.

Bilt has already confirmed main adjustments to its bank card lineup because it shifts to a partnership with Cardless. Given Bilt plans to launch three brand-new playing cards as a part of its Cardless debut, it is very probably its new suite of card merchandise will turn out to be one of many greatest speaking factors of 2026.

The knowledge for the Bilt Mastercard has been collected independently by The Factors Man. The cardboard particulars on this web page haven’t been reviewed or supplied by the cardboard issuer.

Augusta additionally thinks we could lastly see Chase launch a correct competitor to the Amex Gold. That is one thing I have been asking for so long as I can keep in mind, because the Amex Gold at the moment lacks a real competitor from any of the foremost issuers.

Associated: Why Chase wants a competitor to the Amex Gold

Extra welcome bonus restrictions

We noticed Chase undertake an initiative this yr to limit the power of current and former cardholders to earn recent welcome bonuses on client Sapphire and sure Ink merchandise. Capital One additionally made it more durable for sure folks to earn bonuses on its Enterprise merchandise.

Katie believes we’ll see this unlucky pattern proceed, with issuers prioritizing household guidelines and customized gives. For instance, I imagine we might see Chase develop its current restrictions on Sapphire and Ink welcome bonuses to their cobranded playing cards.

We may see different issuers undertake American Categorical’s technique of providing a spread of welcome gives for particular person playing cards, versus a hard and fast supply.

Further restrictions on lounge entry

Lounge entry is without doubt one of the most beloved advantages on bank cards. In current instances, we have seen issuers place restrictions on entry, comparable to Capital One’s upcoming rule adjustments for its Capital One lounges. Whereas irritating for cardholders, these adjustments are a response to rising complaints about wait instances and overcrowding.

Katie thinks that we’ll proceed to see lounge house owners place restrictions on entry. She famous that whereas lounge entry is a favourite profit, upon getting it, you might run into lengthy strains or crowded lounges, which isn’t a premium expertise. For that cause, she sees lounge house owners prioritizing methods to restrict entry and scale back crowding.

AI infiltrates bank cards

Affiliate bank cards author Stephanie Stevens has been musing loads on AI. She believes that bank card issuers will begin utilizing AI to help them with creating focused, dynamic welcome gives for potential cardholders. She additionally thinks AI shall be used to handle lounge waitlists and overcrowding.

In fact, introducing AI into something raises safety and privateness issues, particularly when it’s granted entry to delicate monetary information. It stays to be seen the place and the way issuers will embrace these instruments.

Backside line

2026 is bound to be an thrilling yr. We count on loads of attention-grabbing developments — some constructive, some adverse. No matter what occurs, one factor stays the identical: Factors and miles are one of the simplest ways to unlock wonderful journey experiences.

We’ll nonetheless be right here that will help you try this, it doesn’t matter what subsequent yr brings.